據美國油價網2022年2月21日報道，歐佩克+聯盟產油國1月份的減產大幅增加，這表明名義月度產量配額和實際市場供應之間的差距繼續擴大。 

一位歐佩克+聯盟消息人士周一對路透社表示，歐佩克+聯盟成員國1月份減產協議履行率為129%。 這一數字高于去年12月份的122%和11月份的117%。 

這名消息人士告訴路透社，去年1月份，歐佩克產油國的減產協議履行率躍升至133%，而歐佩克+協議的非歐佩克成員國的總體履行率為123%。  

由于油價在地緣政治風險溢價下的緊張市場中反彈，歐佩克+聯盟的名義產量和實際產量之間的差距不斷擴大，從而推動油價走高。  

自去年8月以來，歐佩克+聯盟每次會議都宣布每月日增40萬桶的名義產量，但實際上過去半年來，歐佩克+聯盟每月增加的市場供應量都低于這一數字。

據國際能源署(IEA) 2月份石油市場月度報告估計，1月份歐佩克+聯盟產量與其目標水平之間的差距高達90萬桶/天。

“如果歐佩克+聯盟的產量與其目標水平之間的缺口持續存在，供應緊張將會加劇，增加更大的波動性和價格上行壓力。 但如果中東地區產能過剩的產油國能夠彌補產能枯竭帶來的損失，這些具有廣泛經濟影響的風險可能會降低。”  

上周，國際能源署署長法提赫·比羅爾在一周內兩次敦促歐佩克+聯盟縮小其生產配額和市場實際供應之間不斷擴大的差距。 

2月21日，包括沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、科威特和阿聯酋在內的中東最大產油國的能源部長表示，盡管人們呼吁增加供應以冷卻油價，歐佩克+聯盟應該堅持每月日增40萬桶原油產量計劃。  

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網

原文如下：

OPEC+ Underproduction Is Pushing Oil Prices Higher

The compliance of OPEC+ producers with their output cut surged in January, suggesting that the gap between nominal monthly output quotas and actual supply to the market continued to widen.

OPEC+ members complied with a massive 129 percent of the production cuts last month, an OPEC+ source told Reuters on Monday. That’s up from 122 percent compliance in December and a compliance rate of 117 percent in November.

In January 2021, OPEC producers’ compliance jumped to 133 percent, while the non-OPEC members of the OPEC+ pact had their overall compliance rate at 123 percent, the source told Reuters.

As oil prices rally in a tight market with a geopolitical risk premium, the widening gap between what OPEC+ has to produce on paper and the reality of oil output is pushing prices higher.

For half a year now, OPEC+ has actually added lower volumes to the market each month than the 400,000 bpd nominal monthly increase announced in each of the OPEC+ meetings since August 2021.

Estimates in the International Energy Agency’s monthly oil market report for February showed that the gap between OPEC+ production and its target levels surged to as much as 900,000 bpd in January.

“If the persistent gap between OPEC+ output and its target levels continues, supply tensions will rise, increasing the likelihood of more volatility and upward pressure on prices. But these risks, which have broad economic implications, could be reduced if producers in the Middle East with spare capacity were to compensate for those running out,” the IEA said.

Last week, the IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol urged OPEC+ twice in one week to narrow the widening gap between its production quotas and the much lower actual supply to the market.

On Sunday, the energy ministers of the biggest oil producers in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, said that OPEC+ should stick to the plan to raise production by 400,000 bpd each month despite calls to boost supply more to cool oil prices.